published on June 04, 2024 in blog

Final Oscars Predictions: Best Director Will Branch Members Fail to Nominate Women for Sec

'Barbie' and director Greta Gerwig were overlooked by BAFTA, which could indicate snubs coming from the Academy

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Directing

Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 18, 2024): Best director is a bloodbath.

After multiple conversations with voters, only three names feel most likely to be called out on Tuesday — Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and, believe it or not, Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”).

The other two slots are open to two of five auteurs — Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”), Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) and Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”). There could be some votes out there for first-time directors Celine Song (“Past Lives”) and Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”), but their names didn’t come up enough in conversation to think they could surprise.

The BAFTA top five nominees for best film gave me the unfortunate signal to suggest despite helming a billion-dollar movie, Greta Gerwig could likely be on the outs for directing “Barbie.” Based on an email sent by AMPAS’ CEO Bill Kramer this week, the international voting bloc of the Academy had a record turn-out. That indicates we could hear the likes of Glazer, Lanthimos and Triet.

The question will be how much flack will the Academy get if no women are nominated for directing for the second year in a row? Last year, “Women Talking” made the best picture lineup, but its helmer Sarah Polley was absent from the list. She went on to win adapted screenplay. Could Gerwig lock up her adapted screenplay Oscar if she receives terrible news on Tuesday morning? Or, could it go further into an “Argo” situation when Ben Affleck was snubbed by the Academy? A scenario could play out where Gerwig and Triet are both among the nominees, marking the second time in history two females are nominated.

Watch out for a few jaw-droppers with this race.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Alexander Payne — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)

Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Next in Line

Justine Triet — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)

Celine Song — “Past Lives” (A24)

Cord Jefferson — “American Fiction” (MGM)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

Andrew Haigh — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

Michael Mann — “Ferrari” (Neon)

Sean Durkin — “The Iron Claw” (A24)

Emerald Fennell — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Ridley Scott — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

Ben Affleck — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Trần Anh Hùng — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

Todd Haynes — “May December” (Netflix)

J.A. Bayona – “Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

Ava DuVernay — “Origin” (Neon)

Also In Contention

Sofia Coppola — “Priscilla” (A24)

Hayao Miyazaki — “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)

David Fincher — “The Killer” (Netflix)

Ilker Çatak — “The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Blitz Bazawule — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

George C. Wolfe — “Rustin” (Netflix)

Matt Johnson — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

Kelly Fremon Craig — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Andrea Pallaoro – “Monica” (IFC Films)

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

Kenneth Branagh – “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
Ari Aster – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
Sean Durkin – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
Celine Song – “Past Lives” (A24)
Sofia Coppola – “Priscilla” (A24)
Kelly Reichardt – “Showing Up” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
Nicole Holofcener – “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
Jonathan Glazer – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Maggie Betts – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Roger Ross Williams – “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Garth Davis – “Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Alejandra Márquez Abella — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Emerald Fennell – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Christos Nikou – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
John Carney – “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
Martin Scorsese – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Ridley Scott – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Guy Nattiv – “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
Wes Anderson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
Alexander Payne – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
A.V. Rockwell – “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
Matt Johnson – “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
Andrea Pallaoro – “Monica” (IFC Films)
Trần Anh Hùng – “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
Eva Longoria — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Janus Films)
Michel Franco — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
Aristotle Torres — “Story Ave” (Kino Lorber)
Kelly Fremon Craig — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Francis Lawrence – “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
Adele Lim – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
Lisa Cortes – “Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
Paul Schrader – “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
James Gunn – “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
Nia DaCosta – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
Cord Jefferson – “American Fiction” (MGM)
George Clooney – “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
Michael B. Jordan – “Creed III” (MGM)
Guy Ritchie — “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM)
Emma Seligman — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
Zach Braff — “A Good Person” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Christopher Zalla — “Radical” (Miercoles Entertainment)
Justin Triet – “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
William Oldroyd – “Eileen” (Neon)
Daniel Goldhaber – “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)
Alice Rochwacher – “La Chimera” (Neon)
Wim Wenders — “Perfect Days” (Neon)
Matthew Heineman — “American Symphony” (Netflix)
Pablo Larrain – “El Conde” (Netflix)
Chloe Dumont – “Fair Play” (Netflix)
David Fincher – “The Killer” (Netflix)
Sam Esmail – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
Todd Haynes – “May December” (Netflix)
Bradley Cooper – “Maestro” (Netflix)
Jimmy Chin, Chai Vasarhelyi — “Nyad” (Netflix)
David Yates — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
Zack Snyder – “Rebel Moon” (Netflix)
George C. Wolfe – “Rustin” (Netflix)
J.A. Bayona – “Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
Ava DuVernay – “Origin” (Neon)
Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher McQuarrie — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
Jeff Rowe — “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
Peter Sohn – “Elemental” (Pixar)
Ray Romano – “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)
Andrew Haigh – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
Taika Waititi – “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Craig Gillespie – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Matt Brown – “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ilker Çatak – “The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Mann – “Ferrari” (Neon)
Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Rebecca Miller – “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
Greta Gerwig – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Ángel Manuel Soto – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
Blitz Bazawule – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Paul King – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
Rob Marshall – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn – “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

2022 category winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.